SVB Energy International in the Media 2020
Iran pushes for a 2021 oil comeback, but sanctions will be hard to shake
S&P Global Platts: December 23, 2020 - The country exported around 585,000 b/d of crude and condensate in November, up about 95,000 b/d from October, according to Sara Vakhshouri, who heads the consultancy SVB Energy International and closely tracks Iranian production.
Iranian Oil Exports Rise as Tehran Circumvents Sanctions, Finds New Buyers
The Wall Street Journal: December 15, 2020 - The Wall Street Journal: Dec. 15, 2020 Iranian Oil Exports Rise as Tehran Circumvents Sanctions, Finds New Buyers SVB International in Washington said Iran exported 585,000 barrels of crude oil a day in November, up from 230,000 earlier in 2020. Petro-Logistics saw an increase in exports to about 447,000 barrels a day, from 222,000.
OPEC delays and spending cuts: Uncertainty abounds in the oil and gas industry
Marketplace: December 2, 2020 - “The current meeting of OPEC is very sensitive and very hard for the members to come to a consensus about what would be exactly the supply and demand prospects in the first quarter of next year,” said Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International. Iran and Libya are also currently producing more oil than was expected, which has led to an even greater supply glut.
As cases of COVID-19 climb, oil prices face a longer recovery
Marketplace: October 19, 2020 - And consultant Sara Vakhshouri at SVB Energy International said the minister’s audience is not just market analysts and traders; it’s algorithms, big-data programs that incorporate key words in the public conversation to generate price forecasts “So Prince Abdul Aziz is talking not only to me and you and traders in the market, he is also talking to a computer, to the artificial intelligence,” Vakhshouri said. “And this is something fascinating.” He wants them all to get the message that crude prices will be going up, Vakhshouri said.
US ELECTIONS: Biden win could lead to surge in Iranian oil exports by 2022
S&P Global Platts: September 9, 2020 - "Having Iran's oil back to the market means that OPEC+ has to cut its output even more if they want to have a balanced market," Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International in Washington, said. "The market is very sensitive to any additional supplies that could enter the market, including the Iranian oil. This is given the fact that already OPEC+ has cut its production to a historical level, and even before the COVID-19 pandemic, the market was already oversupplied." Vakhshouri said Iran does not face many technical hurdles to increase production to pre-sanctions levels. "In fact, the country has already increased its production capacity from some of its fields in the West Karun region," she said.
As Gas Prices Sag, Nigeria Plans to Pump More to Global Markets
Bloomberg: July 2, 2020 - “Access to the market and shipping costs obviously is something that is going to be very important for all the major players,” Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of consulting firm SVB Energy International, said on a webinar Wednesday. “Lower liquefaction costs, feedgas” also matter.
As Gas Prices Sag, Nigeria Plans to Pump More to Global Markets Author of the article:
Financial Post: July 2, 2020 - “Access to the market and shipping costs obviously is something that is going to be very important for all the major players,” Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of consulting firm SVB Energy International, said on a webinar Wednesday. “Lower liquefaction costs, feedgas” also matter.
Treating Asset Protection as an Investment
Business Ghana: June 13, 2020 - “Global lockdowns have had a severe impact on both prices and demand. This double shock – in which both prices and demand collapsed – has implications for both oil producer and consumer countries,” said Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, Founder & President of SVB Energy International. “African countries are facing challenges to security of demand, since global consumption has been significantly hit. There are expectations that by the end of this year, demand will increase further and countries will start racking up their exports. But in the case of major African producers like Nigeria, we are seeing that they have not yet complied with OPEC production cuts.
Treating Asset Protection as an Investment
CNBC Africa: June 12, 2020 - “Global lockdowns have had a severe impact on both prices and demand. This double shock – in which both prices and demand collapsed – has implications for both oil producer and consumer countries,” said Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, Founder & President of SVB Energy International. “African countries are facing challenges to security of demand, since global consumption has been significantly hit. There are expectations that by the end of this year, demand will increase further and countries will start racking up their exports. But in the case of major African producers like Nigeria, we are seeing that they have not yet complied with OPEC production cuts.
Treating Asset Protection as an Investment
Pulse Nigeria: June 12, 2020 - “Global lockdowns have had a severe impact on both prices and demand. This double shock – in which both prices and demand collapsed – has implications for both oil producer and consumer countries,” said Dr. Sara Vakhshouri, Founder & President of SVB Energy International. “African countries are facing challenges to security of demand, since global consumption has been significantly hit. There are expectations that by the end of this year, demand will increase further and countries will start racking up their exports. But in the case of major African producers like Nigeria, we are seeing that they have not yet complied with OPEC production cuts.
Hit by coronavirus and Trump, Iran's oil exports dwindle to record low
Reuters: May 14, 2020 - “Finding customers is not easy,” said Sara Vakhshouri of consulting firm SVB Energy International. “Currently there is a huge oversupply and there is plenty of low-priced oil available in the market.” Iran and fellow OPEC member Venezuela, which is also under sanctions, have had to compete with discounts offered by other producers like Saudi Arabia, as well as pay commission to those that buy and sell their crude, she said. “If you add the discounts to the commissions and the operational costs, there won’t be any profit,” Vakhshouri added.
Oil slides and equity markets continue to fall as Opec+ deal collapses
The National: May 7, 2020 - "Russia chose the perfect timing to decide to end the production cut agreement with Opec, as currently prices are very close to the shale break-even prices and a lack of Opec+ agreement will have even further downward pressure on the prices and ultimately on shale production," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy. The collapse of the deal and the subsequent squeeze on prices are likely to affect the ability of shale producers to secure financing from the banks. "Many shale producers are highly exposed to the current low oil prices," Ms Vakhshouri said.
US oil prices rebound but slip again into negative territory after record plunge
The National: April 21, 2020 - Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy said the negative market reaction to US crude was not indicative of the alliance’s efforts to balance the markets. “This doesn’t reflect the Opec++ cuts, which are effective from May 1. Prices for June delivery are higher than May delivery,” she said. “Also, the huge US oil price collapse [against others] is related to the quality of this oil, which is light and mostly yields jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel.” Demand for these refined petroleum products has been hit the hardest by mobility restrictions in place to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.
OPEC March oil output rises from 2009 low after supply pact collapse
Reuters: March 31, 2020 - Iran is also seeing a drop in gasoline use because of the coronavirus outbreak, said analyst Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy International, compounding the impact of sanctions on supply. “Iran’s oil production has dropped to below 2 million bpd,” she said. The survey average put Iranian output at 2.02 million bpd, down 70,000 bpd.
Saudi Arabia says will raise oil exports further in May, in face of coronavirus hit to demand
S&P Global Platts: March 30, 2020 - Saudi refineries have been running about 2.2 million b/d of crude the last few months, according to JODI. If runs remain at the same levels and the kingdom eliminates the crude it uses for electricity generation, that would imply about 10.1 million b/d of crude for export. "It is not clear if the kingdom's production after April 1 is 12 million b/d of crude oil or if it includes condensate and NGLs," said Sara Vakhshouri, who heads the consultancy SVB Energy and closely follows the Saudi oil sector. "Also it's unclear for how long Saudi Aramco intends to produce 12 million b/d."
US lawmakers press Saudis to stabilize oil prices, but aren't likely to get any satisfaction
S&P Platts: March 19, 2020 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International, said the danger for Trump is if prices stay low, while demand does not recover because of the coronavirus, the US economy could be seriously damaged heading into the election. "The market is still not sure how low the prices could go and for how long," Vakhshouri said. "These are very important factors that could impact the US and Trump's response."
Spare capacity in oil market set to fall as producers ramp up supply
The National: March 15, 2020 - Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy also dismissed concerns about limited spare capacity moving prices higher "unless a supply disruption takes large volumes of oil for a longer period of time out of the market".
Oil slumps to 4-year lows and markets plunge as US suspends air travel from Europe to contain pandemic
The National: March 12, 2020 - Mr Trump also clarified in a tweet that the movement restrictions apply only to people and will not affect trade. "Trump’s suspension of EU flights to and from the US will contribute to the demand shock caused by the Covid-19 outbreak and will have a further downward impact on the global oil demand in the next 30 days," said Sara Vakhshouri of SVB Energy.
OPEC「落日」 ロシア、打倒シェールへ転換 変わる中東 「石油後」の足音（上）
Nikkei: March 10, 2020 - 「ロシアの狙いは米国のシェールオイル企業に打撃を与えることだ」 米調査会社SVBエナジー・インターナショナルのサラ・バクショウリ社長は、4月以降の石油輸出国機構（OPEC）との協調減産強化を拒否したロシアの判断を「賢い」と評価する。原油価格が下がり、シェール企業の損益分岐点に近づいた現状をみて、ロシアはサウジアラビアが率いるOPECとの決別を決めたというわけだ。
OPEC+ Expected to Agree on Output Cut Extension, SVB Energy Says
Bloomberg Markets: March 4, 2020 - Sara Vakhshouri, founder and president of SVB Energy International, discusses the outlook for oil. OPEC+ found itself stuck in a familiar place after a first day of talks, with Russia and Saudi Arabi split over whether it should deepen production cuts to offset the huge demand hit from the coronavirus epidemic. Vakhshouri speaks with Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts on "Bloomberg Markets."
After the U.S. attack in Iraq, how high will oil go?
Market Place: January 3, 2020 - Sara Vakhshouri, president at SVB Energy International, thinks Iran’s reprisals will begin in Iraq. “The first [location] would be Iraq because Iran does not want to enter into a direct war with the rest of the world,” Vakhshouri said. Iraq has oil fields and facilities run by American companies, and like the U.S. Embassy, they appear to be taking precautions with their employees. “We have heard through our network that yes, some of the U.S. companies have already started calling their staff out,” Vakhshouri added. Vakhshouri said Iran is unpredictable in where and when it attacks, so it will be a guessing game.
Iran vows to avenge death of general; oil market on high alert
S&P Platts: January 3, 2020 - Sara Vakhshouri, president of SVB Energy International said the "Qassim Soleimani risk premium" could "potentially" be higher than the recent attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities. "The ambiguity and uncertainty over Iran's retaliatory actions create a huge uncertainty and risk factor for the oil prices and market," said Vakhshouri. "Iran likes to surprise its adversaries and has a habit of attacking its enemies from an angle that they have never expected it, hence it is not easy to clearly expect what would be Iran's retaliatory actions and their impact on the short-term and long-term oil production and supply flow from the Middle East," she added.
Iran’s “living martyr” was ready to die, but blindsided oil markets must face new uncertainty
Atlantic Council: January 3, 2020 - The immediate market reaction and price surge of 4 percent, even before Iranian officials called Soleimani’s assassination an act of war against Iran and called for a “harsh retaliation,” indicates that the common sense about this incident is that the US operation did not make the world and the Middle East region—which is responsible for significant volumes of global oil and gas production—a safer place but rather increased the instability and insecurity in the region. To have a better understanding of the “Qasem Soleimani risk premium” on oil pricing, we should realize the magnitude of the effect his assassination has on the security of the Middle East region and the flow of oil. The “Qasem Soleimani risk premium” on the oil market and prices could potentially be higher than the Aramco attack and could affect prices for longer. Ambiguity over Iran’s retaliatory actions create a huge uncertainty and risk factor for oil prices and the market. Unlike the Aramco attack where the magnitude of the damage and disruption was clear, there is no evidence or clear understanding of what the short-term and long-term impacts of Soleimani’s assassination on the oil market will be. Obviously if the region remains calm and the market doesn’t see any harsh retaliations, prices will adjust and balance themselves toward the dominant market narrative of oversupply and lower demand growth. However, the assassination of Soleimani has added a huge uncertainty to the market as it’s not easy to calculate Iran’s retaliatory actions. Just consider the scenario that the Iranian government vows to remove US forces from Iraq through its proxies in this country. The goal of removing US forces from Iraq is not an easy game but rather a complex series of destructions and conflicts in this country. A scenario like this not only could damage energy facilities but could ultimately hurt Iraqi production if international companies start evacuating their staff due to security alerts.
4 things to watch in oil markets after the U.S. strike
POLITICO: January 3, 2020 - "Iran likes to surprise its adversaries and has a habit of attacking its enemies [from] an angle that they have never expected it," Sara Vakhshouri, president of energy consulting firm SVB Energy International, said in an email. "We could expect anything from [an] attack on U.S. interests and military bases in the region to escalation of conflicts in the Persian Gulf," including attacks on energy facilities, threats to oil shipping routes or physical or cyber attacks against the electricity grids in its neighboring countries that are heavily dependent on electricity for their food and water security.